Midterm Evaluation of the Netherlands Trust Fund (NTF) V Programme

The Netherlands Trust Fund (NTF) Phase V Programme, launched in July 2021 with a budget of USD 15 million, aims to alleviate poverty and contribute to the achievement of several Sustainable Development Goals. It focuses on fostering systemic change and promoting sustainable business models in the agribusiness and digital technology sectors. The programme addresses the demand for skilled labor, innovation, and resilient regional value chains, particularly in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on global trade. By enhancing employment and income opportunities for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), NTF V promotes equitable, ethical, and responsible trade. Implemented by the International Trade Centre (ITC) in collaboration with the Dutch Centre for the Promotion of Imports from Developing Countries (CBI), the programme operates in Ethiopia, Ghana, Senegal, Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, and Uganda. The programme runs until June 2025.

Conclusions

The NTF V programme is on track to achieve or surpass its objectives, particularly in MSME competitiveness and business growth. The programme's adaptive approach to addressing challenges—such as the COVID-19 pandemic, financial constraints, and political instability—has maintained its relevance and effectiveness. However, there are gaps in ensuring long-term sustainability, particularly in access to finance, digital transformation in agribusiness, and systemic policy change. Addressing these issues through strategic planning and strengthened national coordination will be key to securing the programme's lasting impact.

• Relevance: The programme aligns well with Dutch and ITC strategic priorities, particularly in digital transformation and agribusiness, but falls short in driving systemic policy change and fully integrating SDGs 1, 5, 12, and 13 into the design.
• Coherence: There is strong internal coherence with aligned sectoral projects and external coherence with other Dutch and ITC initiatives, though there’s room to improve synergies with broader initiatives like access to finance.
• Effectiveness: The programme is on track to meet most objectives, especially in improving MSMEs’ competitiveness, but struggles with fostering public-private alliances and advancing digital transformation in the agribusiness sector.
• Efficiency: The programme effectively converts inputs to outputs using flexible budgeting, but high administrative burdens on national coordinators and incomplete financial tracking have hindered operational efficiency.
• Potential Impact: The programme has positively contributed to job creation and business growth, but challenges in securing access to finance for scaling operations could limit long-term transformational impacts.
• Sustainability: Institutional capacities have been strengthened, yet the absence of a formal exit strategy and detailed future funding plan could undermine the sustainability of programme outcomes post-implementation.

Recommendations:

• Strengthen linkages with financial initiatives by facilitating strategic exchanges with DGGF, CFYE, and Orange Corners, and identify areas for collaboration on access to finance for programme cohort members.
• Redefine the roles of national coordinators to ensure balanced workloads and consider hiring assistants to support them in managing the programme's ambitious scope.
• Use the reconstructed theory of change to revise linkages between impact-level objectives, document critical assumptions, and conduct workshops to validate the strategy, ensuring alignment with realities on the ground.
• Improve the M&E system by developing comprehensive definitions, aligning sectoral dashboards, and optimising financial planning to enhance data quality and resource allocation.
• Develop and communicate a comprehensive exit and sustainability strategy to ensure long-term financial sustainability, programme ownership, and contingency planning for political or security changes.